Africa’s Crisis Isn’t Imitation — It’s Imagination

Photo from Aljazeera

I value how Ray Dalio simplifies complexity. His insights on China open up essential questions about growth, governance, institutional design, and ideological influence in a multipolar world.

China’s pivot from investment-led to consumption-driven growth is not new but is increasingly urgent. China faces severe constraints with diminishing returns from infrastructure and property sectors and an ageing population. Centralized governance has delivered stability and scale but was not the engine of its rise. Market reforms, WTO integration, demographic dividends, and strategic industrial policy were all critical. Governance alone does not build prosperity — strategy does.

Singapore is cited as a model of efficient state-led development in many African policy circles. It is often invoked as a shorthand for what success might look like under tight control. But let’s be clear: Singapore succeeded not simply because it centralized authority, but because it coupled that authority with world-class institutions, the rule of law, and an unrelenting investment in state capacity. Technocratic efficiency is not the same as institutional accountability, and both matter.

Here’s the problem: Across many African capitals, we treat Singapore like a slogan, not a system. Everyone wants the Marina Bay skyline, but no one wants to do the decades of state reform, bureaucratic pruning, or policy discipline it took to get there. You cannot benchmark ambition on aesthetics. And yet, “Singapore of Africa” has become a mantra, recited by politicians who want authoritarian speed without institutional cost.

Singapore may inspire admiration, but China increasingly commands emulation. And while both are held up as examples of order and rapid development, their models are not interchangeable, and neither are their risks. We admire the outcomes without examining the foundations. This brings us to the question that cuts deeper: What kind of power does a rising China represent? And what happens to the world, particularly to Africa, if that power becomes normative?

This is where I stop being analytical and start being honest.

Africa cannot afford to flirt with authoritarian mimicry again. Not because we’re incapable, but because we’ve tried it. We’ve seen what happens when power consolidates without accountability. We’ve watched liberation movements turn into dynasties, parliaments into rubber stamps, and dissent into exile. These aren’t theoretical risks, they are historical facts.

Yes, African states have agency. Many are leveraging partnerships across the West, the East, and the Global South. However, we must acknowledge a dangerous trend: authoritarian aesthetics can look like strength where institutions are weak. And that illusion has cost us decades.

We must stop idolizing outcomes we didn’t build. Power that is not earned institutionally becomes violence or vanity - and often both.

So what is the alternative?

We don’t need imported ideologies, we need indigenous blueprints. We need governance models born from our own history of precolonial consensus-building, postcolonial resilience, and the lived knowledge that power without restraint is a curse, not a solution. We need institutions that reflect our complexity, not paper copies of someone else’s efficiency.

Let’s be clear: institutional power is not about who rules but what survives when no one does. Any model that depends on a single man, moment, or myth is not a model, it’s a memory waiting to collapse.

We don’t need more borrowed models. We need to ask harder questions. What does a public service reform look like when you have neither elite cohesion nor a culture of civic trust? What does the rule of law mean when courts are funded by the executive they must judge? These are not academic hypotheticals, they are the real work of nation-building.

Here’s the paradox: The only way to follow global power… is to stop following anyone. The only way to catch up… is to stop copying. And the only way to build sovereign governance… is to stop outsourcing our imagination.

This is not an indictment of China or Singapore. Both nations followed paths suited to their histories, challenges, and social contracts. It is a call to African leadership. We must critically assess which parts of any model are transferable and which are not. Governance is not a plug-and-play affair. Without trusted institutions, independent judiciaries, and an engaged citizenry, any model — Western, Eastern, or indigenous — will falter.

So no, we don’t need to mimic power. We need to build it.

Deliberately. Intelligently. And unapologetically on our own terms.

Because if we fail to do so, we won’t just be borrowing someone else’s model, we’ll be re-entering our own past.

And this time, we’ll have no one else to blame.

Africa’s crisis is not imitation — it’s imagination. The future won’t be built by those who follow best, but by those who dare to create differently.

Dean N Onyambu is the Founder and Chief Editor of Canary Compass, a co-author of Unlocking African Prosperity, and the Executive Head of Treasury and Trading at Opportunik Global Fund (OGF), a CIMA-licensed fund for Africans and diasporans (Opportunik). Passion and mentorship have fueled his 15-year journey in financial markets. He is a proud former VP of ACI Zambia FMA (@ACIZambiaFMA) and founder of mentorship programs that have shaped and continue to shape 63 financial pros and counting! When he is not knee-deep in charts, he is all about rugby. His motto is exceeding limits, abounding in opportunities, and achieving greatness. #ExceedAboundAchieve

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