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David Ryder's avatar

Areas I see that you omit your commentary:

1. You have not shown why there is a need to dedollarise nor how important the currencies are to the economy and therefore what the gap is between current conditions and intended conditions. BOZ complains that its monetary policy is rendered ineffective with USD circulating is plain baloney. Zambian economy is not credit driven. Credit to private sector is lower now than in 2011. Demand is suppressed with load shedding. Imports drive prices in many goods. Also there are significant variations across sectors - some more USD dependent and denominated. And by the way neither has BOZ made its case. This appears more ideological than economic.

2. Contracts - long term contracts have 1 year to transition to ZMW. If a business has made its financial case based on income and debt matching streams, it is now faced with currency risk which it did not factor inevitably hitting profitability.

3. USD debt/ equity financing - Diversification, electrification and industrialisation often require foreign capital. Mismatching currencies renders the projects unviable for lenders conditionalities and investors hurdle rates. No hedges are available for long tenor loans.

4. Currency speculation - domestically one of the main speculators in 2024 has been BOZ with its interventions. The 'little man' is not a meaningful speculator in the scheme of things. USD is a store of value in an ocean of volatility. To the contrary USD is a stabiliser. All rates rise relative to US rates.

5. Comparative economies cited by BOZ have worse economically than prior to dedollarisation. Inflation is higher, depreciation steeper, and incomes per capita level or lower. There is no economic case for dedollarisation. Zambia's own SI33 was repealed for similar reasons.

The conclusion "room for improvement" is not supported by your analysis which appears to point to rejection on balance. No?

David Ryder

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